incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit

CONTEXT : Projections of species distribution models under future climate are usually based on long-term averages. However, singular extreme drought events presumably contribute to the shaping of distribution limits at the retreating low-elevation xeric limits. METHODS : The objectives of this study were to set up a distribution model based on extreme drought events (EDM), which uses sanitary logging information as a proxy of vitality response of beech, and compare it with the results of classical species distribution models (SDMs). RESULTS : Predictions of the EDM for 2025 were in agreement with those of the SDM, but EDM predicted a more serious decline in all regions of Hungary towards the end of the century. CONCLUSION : These results suggest that the predicted increase in frequency and severity of drought events may further limit the distribution of beech in the future.