The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters

As a group, market forecasters are overconfident in the sense that they are miscalibrated. While overconfidence is persistent, respondents do exhibit some degree of rational learning in that they widen confidence intervals after failure as much as they narrow them after success. Market experience ex...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of economic behavior & organization 2010-09, Vol.75 (3), p.402-412
Hauptverfasser:	Deaves, Richard, Lüders, Erik, Schröder, Michael
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Behavioral finance Confidence Confidence intervals Deterioration Economic forecasts Financial analysis Forecasting Learning Overconfidence Overconfidence Stock market Behavioral finance Learning Panel data Panel data Perception Quantitative Finance Securities markets Stock exchange Stock market Stock prices Stockbrokers Studies
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
Tags:	Tag hinzufügen Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!

Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	As a group, market forecasters are overconfident in the sense that they are miscalibrated. While overconfidence is persistent, respondents do exhibit some degree of rational learning in that they widen confidence intervals after failure as much as they narrow them after success. Market experience exacerbates overconfidence, primarily through knowledge deterioration.
ISSN:	0167-2681 1879-1751 0167-2681
DOI:	10.1016/j.jebo.2010.05.001