Long equatorial wave reflection in the Pacific Ocean from TOPEX/POSEIDON data during the 1992-1998 period

The TOPEX/POSEIDON sea level data have been shown to observe the sea surface height variability accurately over the globe and, more particularly, in the tropical Pacific, core region of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Various studies have already provided descriptions of long equatorial wave propagation as well as estimates of their reflection at both the eastern and western boundaries using TOPEX/POSEIDON data over short time periods. In this present work, we are first interested in computing long equatorial wave amplitudes over a much longer period (October 1992-May 1998) focusing on the Kelvin and first three largest Rossby waves. Secondly, we are examining qualitatively potential theories of ENSO in the light of observations of the strong 1997-1998 El Nino event. At the eastern boundary, Kelvin waves are observed to reflect into first (third) mode Rossby waves with a reflection efficiency of 75% (65%) of that of an infinite meridional wall. In the western Pacific Ocean, the reflection of the first Rossby wave does explain more than 90% of the Kelvin wave variance. The second Rossby wave is found not to be correlated to the Kelvin wave amplitude, and the third Rossby wave is highly correlated to the Kelvin signal although its contribution is weak. The investigation during the 1997-1998 event of two theories potentially important for ENSO (the delayed action oscillator mechanism and the recent theory of Picaut et al., 1997) led us to the following conclusions. The westerly wind anomalies observed in the western Pacific in December 1996 and March 1997 forced downwelling Kelvin waves which advected the eastern edge of the warm pool eastward and deepened the thermocline in the east Pacific. Both zonal advection and vertical processes are suggested to act constructively during the onset of positive anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific. From May to September 1997, downwelling Kelvin wave wind-forced in the central Pacific and reflected downwelling Rossby waves (reinforced by local easterly wind anomalies) acted against each other, and the 28 degree C isotherm was found to move slightly westward. In October 1997, strong westerly wind anomalies forced a strong downwelling Kelvin wave potentially responsible for the strong warming in the east Pacific. The 28 degree C isotherm reached the eastern boundary. At that time, the equatorial sea surface temperatures are zonally homogeneous. The strong downwelling Rossby waves reflected at the boundary could no