21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate model

The SAMM (Sea Atmosphere Mediterranean Model) has been developed to study the climate evolution of the Mediterranean and European regions for the 21st Century. SAMM is a new concept of AORCM (Atmosphere–Ocean Regional Climate Model), where a global atmosphere model is locally coupled with a regional ocean circulation model. It consists of the global spectral AGCM ARPEGE-Climate model, whose variable resolution is maximum in the Mediterranean region (50 km), which has been coupled to the Mediterranean Sea limited area OGCM OPAMED (10 km). A 140-year numerical experiment starting in 1960 was run with the AORCM. Up to year 2000, forcing was prescribed from observed values, whereas forcing following a SRES-A2 scenario was applied beyond 2000. In order to ensure the model stability, a simple monthly heat flux correction on air–sea exchanges was applied. The present-climate validation proves that the AORCM is comparable to the state-of-the-art European Atmosphere Regional Climate Models (ARCM) at the same resolution. At first order, the climate change impact over Europe simulated by the AORCM is comparable with ARCM simulations. However the AORCM significantly amplifies the climate change signal over large parts of Europe with respect to the corresponding ARCM: the warming is higher in all seasons and in many areas of Europe (up to 25% of the signal), winters are wetter over northern Europe and summers drier over southern and eastern Europe (up to 50% of the signal). These differences are highly significant and the choice between coupled and non-coupled regional models could be an additional source of uncertainty when evaluating the climate change response over Europe. The factors responsible for these differences are discussed. Among them, the response of the Mediterranean SST, better simulated by the high resolution Mediterranean Sea model of the AORCM, seems to be preponderant. Further mechanism studies and model inter-comparisons are however required to legitimate the present results.