Temporal pattern and effect of COVID-19 on the trend of TB, DRTB, paediatrics TB and TB with HIV Coinfection: A decadal trend analysis

ABSTRACT Background: India shares 2/3 of global TB burden. MDR and HIV coinfections are the main obstacle in achieving the successful TB control because it decrease the therapy effect. Objective: To analyze the long-term trends of incidence of tuberculosis cases and identify any differences between actual and projected cases after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: A retrolective study was conducted in SMS medical college, Jaipur, and data were extracted from state TB cell and annual report published by central TB division. A multiplicative model was used for conducting time series analysis. The projected yearly number of cases were estimated using the line of best fit based on the least square method. Result: An increasing trend in the incidence of TB was observed, rising from 1,517,363 in 2008 to 2,404,815 in 2019. Similarly, DRTB also showed an increasing trend from 10,267 (0.67 of total new cases) in 2011 to 66,255 (2.75) in 2019. The new cases of DRTB in 2020 were significantly lower than the projected number. The trend of HIV coinfection in TB cases fluctuated over the past decade. Conclusion: The findings reveal a concerning upward trajectory in TB incidence and DRTB cases over the decade. The fluctuating trend in HIV coinfection in TB cases emphasizes the complexity of addressing these interconnected health challenges. Keywords: COVID-19, DRTB, paediatrics TB, TB, TB with HIV coinfection