From "Joint Development" to "Independent Development": China's Hydrocarbon Standoffs in the South China Sea

Some of Beijing's recent assertive actions in the South China Sea can be understood as a manifestation of what Chinese analysts call "independent development". The concept is conceived as a responsive measure to what Beijing views as other claimants' unilateral hydrocarbon development activities in the South China Sea and as a means to pressure other claimants into engaging in joint development with China and to compensate for what Beijing perceives as the disadvantages it faces being a latecomer to the energy development race in the region. In attempting to conduct independent development, China has mostly targeted areas of the South China Sea that overlap with Vietnam's designated oil and gas development blocks. By contrast, when dealing with the Philippines, especially during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte (2016–22), China has adopted the more loosely defined concept of "cooperative development" to minimize potential legal and political barriers that Philippine leaders may face domestically. With Malaysia, China has traditionally been ambivalent to the prospect of joint development but may increasingly utilize independent development to nudge Malaysia into starting a serious discussion on joint development. However, pursuing independent development does not portend China's abandonment of joint or cooperative development. Indeed, there remains hope for regional collaboration in hydrocarbon development in the South China Sea.