Water Stress-Induced Divergence Growth of IPicea schrenkiana/I in the Western Tianshan and Its Forcing Mechanisms

Since the 1950s, divergence problems have reduced the temporal stability of tree rings in response to climate, shaken the foundations of dendroclimatology, and affected the reliability of reconstructed models based on tree rings and the accuracy of historical climate series. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate divergence problems, which will help us to better understand the growth strategies of trees in response to climate warming and provide a scientific basis for accurate climate reconstruction and simulation of forest dynamics. This paper aims to elucidate the mechanism of divergent growth of Picea schrenkiana at high altitudes in the western Tianshan from three aspects: variations in atmospheric circulation, changes in climatic factors, and the coping strategy of trees with climate change. High spring temperatures accelerate the melting of snow cover. Large amounts of snowmelt initially replenish soil water, leading to the rapid growth of trees, but later, the continuous consumption of snowmelt reduces the available water capacity of soil, resulting in water stress on trees. The pattern of trees’ response to changes in climate ranges from a pure temperature limitation to a collaborative temperature–moisture limitation. Since the 1990s, the weakening of the westerly circulation and the North Atlantic Oscillation has reduced their impacts on the hydroclimate in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia. The combination of heat-induced water deficit and a long-term weakening trend in atmospheric circulation has slowed tree growth over the past decade.