A module to simulate the impact of western gall rust stands in British Columbia

Western gall rust (Cronartium harknessii (J.P. Moore) E. Meinecke) is a pathogen that affects lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon var. latifolia Engelm. ex S. Watson) and has the potential to reduce lumber product yields derived from stands managed for the commercial production of timber. A dataset containing repeated measurements from 7775 trees located within the province of British Columbia, Canada, was used to develop equations that predict annual rates of stem infection, post-infection mortality, and the location of large stem galls. Results showed that annual rates of infection peaked between 3 and 5 years following stand establishment. Few new infections were predicted to occur beyond the stand age of 15 years. For an individual tree, the probability of first infection increased as its height increased relative to stand top height. The rate of mortality increased with the number of stem infections and was highest among trees infected within the first 3 years following planting. Mortality rates decreased thereafter, with many trees likely to survive to rotation. The equations predicting rust incidence and mortality were added to the Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS), an individual-tree growth model used within the province. A final equation predicting the location of large galls was added and allows TASS to account for losses due to the removal of stem defects during lumber manufacturing.