Reliability-based assessment of existing masonry arch railway bridges

•Simplified full probabilistic analysis through Limitstate RING software.•A sensitivity analysis is introduced to reduce the computational costs of the overall analysis.•Statistical definition of resistance random variables involved in the limit state function.•Analysis of a set of masonry arch bridges of small, medium and large spans.•Comparison of the obtained reliability indexes of all bridges, justifying the influence of each variable. A great number of masonry arch bridges dates back to past centuries, being preserved by society due to their historical and still economic importance. Thereby, adequate preservation measures are required. Regarding masonry arch bridge’s structural condition, it is relevant to consider its age, and consequently deterioration, and the fact that these bridges are submitted to loads higher than those for which they were conceived, being imperative to assess their structural performance. Regarding safety assessment requirements, there are different reliability levels, whose objectives are to analyse the ultimate load-carrying capacity and the serviceability performance. This paper presents and discusses a framework that allows to determine the ultimate load-carrying capacity (Ultimate Limit State) of masonry arch bridges, using limit analysis and probabilistic approaches. Geometric and material data and load characterization, as well as inherent uncertainties will be also introduced. In order to determine the ultimate load-carrying capacity, the plastic theory will be employed, namely the limit analysis theorem, which is based on kinematic mechanisms. Since one of the main drawbacks of a probabilistic analysis is the required high computational resources, a sensitivity analysis is incorporated in order to reduce the analysis time. The presented framework is validated with an application to a set of existing Portuguese railway masonry arch bridges.