Impacts of variability in coefficient of thermal expansion on predicted concrete pavement performance

•Concrete samples from four different field projects were laboratory-tested for CTE and other Level 1 material properties.•Rigid pavements analyzed in AASHTO Pavement ME Design® with range of CTE inputs.•Changes in predicted pavement distress compared with variability in CTE values.•Quantified the effects of CTE variability on pavement thickness and service life.•Precision required for measuring the concrete CTE for use in the AASHTO Pavement ME Design is identified. Research published recently has emphasized the importance of the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) for characterizing concrete behavior in the field. This study defined the sensitivity of CTE, based on pavement design analyses using material and data samples from the field projects. The CTE’s level of precision was examined along with its impacts on the predicted distresses, service life, and pavement thickness for the desired design life. A precision of ±0.5με/°C was found to have minimal impact (±1.3cm) on the optimized pavement thicknesses predicted. Also, observed differences in predicted service life further demonstrate the sensitivity of the CTE.