Uncertainty in innovative projects unpredictable: creating direction with project management/Incerteza imprevisivel em projetos inovadores: criando sentido com a gestao de projetos

The more innovative a project is, the greater the probability of occurrence of unforeseeable uncertainty (unknown unknowns). This kind of uncertainty would be realized through the identification of early signs of a change, however for the recognition of these signs is necessary to sensemaking. Thus, this study aims to understand how project management makes sense of unforeseeable uncertainties in innovative projects and which practices are more efficient. A field survey was conducted which chose 16 projects and 35 unforeseen events as representative of unforeseeable uncertainties. Data analysis was initially qualitative grounded in-depth interview; in addition, a statistical analysis was made through non-parametric tests. The results pointed out that learning process (experimentation and improvisation) was more used in unforeseen events, risk management is not enought to identify unforeseeable uncertainty, and practices as collect information, collective sensemaking are more efficient. The results of this analysis suggest incorporating the diagnosis of unforeseeable to focus in information search about gaps in knowledge and socialize the knowledge of all team members and stakeholders.