The communication of uncertain scientific advice during natural hazard events

Introduces the 'volcano problem', the extremely uncertain predictive environment surrounding volcanic eruptions for effective emergency management planning and response, then reviews emergency management in New Zealand. Describes Exercise Ruaumoko, a simulation which tested the use of a scientific advisory group during the lead up to an imaginary eruption in Auckland. Summarises the literature on the communication of verbal and numerical probabilities, with a discussion of the translation table approach that the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopts. Presents some preliminary results of a survey to assess the differences between scientists' and non-scientists' translations of verbal probability phrases to numerical equivalents, and their perceptions of event likelihoods across time windows for multi-day statements. Source: National Library of New Zealand Te Puna Matauranga o Aotearoa, licensed by the Department of Internal Affairs for re-use under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand Licence.