Mesoscale modeling investigation using PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 model for weather simulation and prediction

The objective of the present study is to establish a mesoscale modeling investigation of severe weather events and to adopt the numerical weather prediction model for possible use in regions where solar equipment will be used. Accurate and reliable forecasting is crucial in regions that have limited resources; such as third world countries, where renewable solar energy can be utilized. Cloud cover, temperature, radiation, and precipitation are major factors that help the operation of such devices; therefore weather conditions must be predicted fairly well in advance so that appropriate measures can be taken to protect assets. The PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate and predict weather circulations and patterns. The Washington D.C. region was chosen as a case study where solar cookers were used for experimental studies by Howard University for last 5 to 7 years. The model was run for a 24-hour time period on September 16, 1999, when Hurricane Floyd made its way through the east coast. NCEP/NCAR global analysis data was used to construct the initial and boundary conditions. The model predicted parameters including sea level pressure, rainfall, temperature, radiation tendency, wind magnitude and direction. The results were then compared with station observations taken by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and aircraft observations taken by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and noted reasonably good agreement. The study aided in determining weather conditions well in advance to assess risks, so that appropriate measures can be taken in to account to forecast severe weather conditions.