Probabilistic seismic slope stability analysis and design

Deterministic seismic slope stability design charts for cohesive–frictional ( ) soils are traditionally used by geotechnical engineers to include the effects of earthquakes on slopes. These charts identify the critical seismic load event that is sufficient to bring the slope to a state of limit equilibrium, but they do not specify the probability of this event. In this paper, the probabilistic seismic stability of slopes, modeled using a two-dimensional spatially random soil, is examined for the first time using the random finite element method (RFEM). Slope stability design aids for seismic loading, which consider spatial variability of the soil, are provided to allow informed geotechnical seismic design decisions in the face of geotechnical uncertainties. The paper also provides estimates of the probability of slope failure without requiring computer simulations. How the design aids may be used is demonstrated with an example of slope remediation cost analysis and risk-based design.