Analysis of Energy-Related-CO[sub.2]-Emission Decoupling from Economic Expansion and CO[sub.2] Drivers: The Tianjin Experience in China

Cities are key areas for carbon control and reduction. The study of the decoupling between CO[sub.2] emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) and the drivers of CO[sub.2] emissions in cities facilitates the reduction of CO[sub.2] emissions to safeguard the development of the economy. This paper first calculates the CO[sub.2] emissions in Tianjin, China, from 2005 to 2022, then uses the Tapio decoupling index to quantify the decoupling status, and, finally, explores the energy-CO[sub.2]-emission drivers through the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. The findings indicate that (1) the decrease in CO[sub.2] emissions from industrial products and transport is the main reason for the decline. (2) During the period under investigation, the predominant condition observed was a state of weak decoupling. (3) Given the economic-output effect is the primary and substantial driver of energy CO[sub.2] emissions, it is essential to harmonize the interplay between economic-development approach and CO[sub.2] emissions to foster sustainable development in Tianjin. The industrial structure plays the most critical role in hindering the reduction of CO[sub.2] emissions; therefore, optimizing industrial structure can help achieve carbon reduction and control targets. These findings enrich the study of CO[sub.2] emission factors and can also interest urban policymakers.