Predicting distribution overlaps between Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford 1897 and six Pinus species in Mexico under global climate change

Species that coexist nowadays will not necessarily match their distributions in the future due to different climate suitability. The aim of this study was to identify potential distribution areas where the bark beetle Dendroctonus adjunctus and six of its host tree species overlap under different climate change scenarios. Potential distribution maps were built with species presence data using the MaxLike R library. For each projection, we used WorldClim bioclimatic variables, current and future (2050, 2070) condition climate data, two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5), and three general circulation models. The results show that the projected current potential distribution area of the bark beetle extends over 216 000 [km.sup.2]. This potential distribution range spans across 28 of the 32Mexican states, eight of which have not yet reported the insect's presence. Of the 72 overlapping maps that we made, the largest covers more than 118 000 [km.sup.2] for Pinus duranguensis, while all future projections show a reduction in spatial coincidence. Given future climatic scenarios, D. adjunctus will probably reach higher altitudinal sites. The information contained in this study can be used to identify areas to prioritize monitoring, management, plant sanitation treatment, and reforestation strategies in Mexican pine forests. Key words: bark insects, RCP, MaxLike, pine forests Des especes qui coexistent aujourd'hui ne verront pas necessairement leurs distributions correspondre a l'avenir en raison de leur aptitude differente au climat. L'objectif de cette etude etait d'identifier les zones de distribution potentielles ou le scolyte Dendroctonus adjunctus et six de ses especes d'arbres hotes se chevauchent selon differents scenarios de changement climatique. Des cartes de distribution potentielle ont ete etablies a partir des donnees de presence des especes en utilisant la bibliotheque R MaxLike. Pour chaque projection, nous avons utilise les variables bioclimatiques WorldClim, les donnees climatiques des conditions actuelles et futures (2050, 2070), deux scenarios de concentration de gaz a effet de serre (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) et trois modeles de circulation generale. Les resultats montrent que l'aire de distribution potentielle actuelle projetee du scolyte s'etend sur 216 000 [km.sup.2]. Cette aire de distribution potentielle s'etend sur 28 des 32 Etats mexicains, dont huit n'ont pas encore signale la presence de l'insecte. Parmi les 72 cartes s