Maximum entropy niche-based modeling in Mexico

There are many butterfly and moth species in Mexico whose possible areas of distribution are still largely unknown. Some are endemic and rare but are not yet protected by the Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010 (Environmental protection--Native species of flora and fauna from Mexico). An example is the moth Coreura albicosta Draudt (Lepidoptera: Erebidae: Ctenuchina), a rare and apparently endemic species known from southern Mexican cloud forest habitats. To document the distribution of this species, ArcView was used to map its known distribution in Mexico. Maxent models were used to predict C. albicosta's potential distribution. Results indicate that C. albicosta is distributed exclusively in high altitudes along mountainous cloud forests of the Sierra Madre Oriental and the mountains of Chiapas. The Maxent model proved to be highly reliable (AUC = 0.984), and the ability to predict the excluded grid in every model was high (88.9%). Environmental variables with a large contribution to the model were vegetation type and mean annual precipitation. Only 1.0% of the species' known distribution and 6.8% of the potentially favorable grids coincided with the existing network of spaces protected in Mexico. Results emphasize the need to promote the conservation of this endemic cloud forest species and support the proposed inclusion of C. albicosta in the Mexican legislation for species protection with the purpose of conservation.