Estimating the economic impact of an eventual introduction of Huanglongbing no Estado da Bahia

Bahia is the second most important citrus region in Brazil, accounting for 5,5% of Brazilian production. 80% of the production comes from family based farms, which depend on this crop for economic support. Huanglongbing (HLB) was never recorded in Bahia, but is already spreading in three other citrusproducing states of the country, one of which borders the state of Bahia. Thus, this study aimed to estimate the potential economic impact resulting from an eventual introduction of HLB in Bahia. It was used the Gompertz and logistic models to estimate the disease progress under three scenarios. For the baseline scenario (A) the plant health agency efforts would prevent the HLB invasion. In scenario B, we assumed the disease introduction in citrus orchards and the absence of control measures, leading to the spread of HLB in the following years. In scenario C, after detection of the disease, the growers would adopt control measures: eradication of symptomatic hosts and suppression of insect vector populations. The costs of the disease control were calculated by considering the need for insecticide spraying, carrying out periodic inspections and eradication of symptomatic plants. The net present value (NPV) was used for comparing the scenarios. The results showed that, if the HLB is introduced in Bahia, the losses would be very significant in the following 20 years. If control and eradication procedures are not followed, losses in excess of US$ 890 million could occur. Index terms: Candidatus Liberibacter, cost, eradication. A Bahia e o segundo mais importante Estado produtor de citros do Brasil, responsavel por 5,5% da producao do Pais. 80% da producao vem de propriedades de base familiar, as quais dependem desse cultivo para seu sustento economico. O Huanglongbing (HLB) nunca foi registrado na Bahia, mas esta disseminando-se em outros tres Estados do Brasil (Sao Paulo, Parana e Minas Gerais), um dos quais faz fronteira com a Bahia. Assim, este estudo teve como objetivo estimar o impacto economico potencial de uma eventual introducao do HLB na Bahia. Foram utilizados os modelos de Gompertz e logistico associados a diferentes estratos de idade das plantas para estimar, respectivamente, a evolucao da incidencia e da severidade da doenca no parque citricola baiano, num horizonte de 20 anos. O progresso da doenca foi usado para estimar os danos a producao em tres cenarios. No cenario-base (A), os esforcos da agencia estadual de defesa agropecuaria previniria a entra