Modeling of motor fuel consumption in Serbia with projection to 2025/Modelovanje potrosnje motornih goriva u srbiji sa projekcijama do 2025. Godine

This study is based on the application of mathematical methods of statistical analysis that can be used to predict the development of motor fuel consumption in the Republic of Serbia. It is based on the linear dependence of consumption growth of motor fuel from the development of gross domestic product per capita, which is then corrected by introducing five additional influencing parameters. The model results indicate that the total consumption of motor fuels in Serbia from 2010 to 2025 will be increased by 26.5%. Individual consumption of motor fuels shows different market tendencies. Diesel fuel consumption expects to continue intensive growth to 2025, even though slightly slower than the achievements in the last decade. The current trend of declining demand for gasoline will be stopped from 2015-2016, then followed by slow growth of demand by 2025. Consumption of liquefied petroleum gasses (LPG) will enter the phase of saturation in 2015. Keywords: consumption of petroleum products; GDP; mathematical model; Republic of Serbia. Available online at the Journal website: Ovaj rad se bazira na primeni metoda matematicke statisticke analize koji mogu da posluze za predvidanje razvoja potrosnje motornih goriva u Republici Srbiji. Model je baziran na linearnoj zavisnosti rasta obima potrosnje motornih goriva od razvoja bruto domaceg proizvoda po glavi stanovnika koja je potom korigovana uvodenjem pet dodatnih uticajnih parametara. Svakom od ovih parametara dodeljen je odgovarajuci koeficijent koji odmerava specificni uticaj istog na potrosnju motornih goriva. Rezultati modela ukazuju da ce ukupna potrosnja motornih goriva u Srbiji od 2010. do 2025. biti uvecana za 26,5%, sa 2,36 Mt/god na 2,99 Mt/god. Potrosnju dizel goriva ocekuje nastavak intenzivnog rasta, doduse nesto usporen u odnosu na ostvarenja u prethodnoj dekadi i do 2025. potrosnja ce dostici nivo od blizu 2 Mt. Postojeci trend opadanja traznje motornih benzina bice zaustavljen 2015-2016, nakon toga sledi spori rast traznje i do 2025. potrosnja ce biti oko 550 Kt. Potrosnja tecnog naftnog gasa (TNG) nakon intenzivnog rasta od 2015. uci ce u fazu saturacije, tako da ce u periodu 2010-2025. godine zabeleziti mali porast potrosnje--0sa 377 na 435 Kt/god.