Impact of macroeconomic factors in the issue of shares in the exchange/Impacto dos fatores macroeconomicos na emissao de acoes na bolsa de valores/Impacto de los factores macro-económicos en la emisión de acciones en la bolsa de valores

This study intended to analyze which are the relations between the emission of public offers of shares and the following variables: interest rate, industrial production, inflation rate, and the return of assets of the brazilian capital market. The series that analyzed in this paper were obtained from IPEA and BM&FBOVESPA, in a monthly frequency, from january 1998 to january 2012. Given the fact that the all the variables were found stationary it was adopted the Vector Autorregression model. It was recurred to the techniques of Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Functions to verify the significance of shocks on these variables on the emission of pubic offer of shares and it was found that most of the deviations caused on the variance are explained by variations on this variable itself, with a participation higher then 90%, along ten months. After it, there are the variables Selic and IPCA. In Parallel it was applied the Granger Causality test, that indicated that all variables affect the emission of public offers, except Ibovespa. Keywords: Initial public offering. Variance decomposition. Vector auto regressive. Buscou-se com esse estudo analisar quais relacoes a emissao de oferta publica de acoes guardam com as seguintes variaveis: taxa de juros, producao industrial, taxa da inflacao, e o retorno dos ativos no mercado acionario brasileiro. As series que compoe o escopo desse trabalho foram obtidas junto ao IPEA e BM&FBovespa, com frequencia mensal, de janeiro 1998 a janeiro de 2012. Dado o fato de que as variaveis foram todas estacionarias foi utilizado o modelo de Vetores Auto Regressivo. Recorreu-se a tecnicas de Decomposicao da Variancia e Funcoes de Impulso e Resposta para verificar a significancia dos choques dessas variaveis na emissao de oferta publica de acoes e foi constatado que a maior parte dos desvios causados na sua variancia e explicada por variacoes sofrida nela mesma, com uma participacao de mais de 90,0%, ao longo dos dez meses. Em seguida estao as variaveis Selic e IPCA. Em paralelo foi aplicado o teste de causalidade de Granger, que indicou que todas as variaveis afetam a emissao de ofertas publicas, exceto a Ibovespa. Palavras-chave: Oferta publica de acoes. Decomposicao de variancia. Vetores auto regressivos. Con este estudio se busco analizar que relaciones guarda la emision de oferta publica de acciones con las siguientes variables: tasa de interes, produccion industrial, tasa de inflacion y el retorno de los activos en el