Leaving early: the determinants of student non-completion in Croatian higher education/Rani odlazak sa studija: determinante nezavrsavanja studija u hrvatskom visokom obrazovanju

Similar to other European higher education systems, the Croatian higher education framework has experienced some remarkable changes since the 1990s as the number of students enrolled increased by more than 80 percent in the last 15 years. Following this expansion, in many countries there has been an increase in non-completion rates, especially during the first year of studies. To gain more insight, this paper presents the theoretical background for examining student non-completion at the first year of studies and identifies the main determinants. A model of student non-completion is developed and adjusted to the Croatian context. Using a rich dataset on eight cohorts of one large Croatian higher education institution, the empirical work analyses the effects of student's personal characteristics, his/her peers, parental qualifications, previous and current schooling characteristics on the probability of non-completion of the first year of studies. This research is also relevant and applicable in other countries experiencing these inefficiencies in student non-completion. Key words: Higher education, First-year non-completion, Student Integration Model, Logistic regression. Hrvatsko visoko obrazovanje dozivjelo je velike promjene od 1990-ih, posebice u broju upisanih studenata kojih je danas 80% vise nego prije 15 godina. Slicne promjene dogadaju se i u europskom visokoobrazovnom sustavu. U mnogim zemljama posljedica ove ekspanzije je povecanje stope nezavrsavanja studija, s naglaskom na prvu godinu studija. Kako bi ostvarili bolji uvid u problematiku, ovaj rad ispituje teorijsku osnovicu u analizi nezavrsavanja prve godine studija te identificira glavne determinante. U radu se razvija i model nezavrsavanja studija koji je prilagoden hrvatskom visokoobrazovnom sustavu. Baza podataka koja se koristi u analizi obuhvaca 8 generacija studenata jedne velike hrvatske visokoskolske institucije. U empirijskom dijelu istrazuju se ucinci varijabli kao sto su osobne karakteristike studenta i njegovih vrsnjaka na studiju, stupanj obrazovanja roditelja, karakteristike srednje skole i fakulteta, na vjerojatnost nezavrsavanja prve godine studija. Ovo istrazivanje je relevantno i primjenjivo u drugim zemljama koje su suocene s neefikasnim zavrsavanjem studija. Kljucne rijeci: visoko obrazovanje, nezavrsavanje prve godine studija, Student Integration Model, logisticka regresija.