Reconstruction of bog lake water level fluctuations using method of simple modelling: a case study on Lake Rekyva/Pelkiniu ezeru praeities vandens lygio kaitos rekonstrukcija paprasto modeliavimo metodu.rekyvos ezero pavyzdys

Considering lack of observations and meteorological data, the article analyses the reconstruction of bog lake water level fluctuations. The main issue of using advanced methods for determining water level fluctuations and balance can be lack of verified data. The proposed method uses only a variable length period of precipitation amount data series. Bog lake Rekyva can be distinguished from other bog lakes due to its large area, and therefore has been chosen for this case study. The main conclusion is that the proposed method is suitable for determining trends towards water level fluctuation over long time periods. Keywords: modelling lake water level, hydrology of bog lakes. Pavirsiniu vandens telkiniu vandens lygio kaitos tyrimai yra vienas is metodu klimato kaitai tirti ir vertinti. Straipsnyje siulomas metodas rekonstruoti pelkiniu ezeru vandens lygio kaita naudojant minimalu meteorologiniu duomenu rinkini, kuris yra statistiskai patikimas ir tinkamas ilgo laikotarpio vandens lygio kaitos rekonstrukcijai. Tiriamojo Rekyvos ezero atveju patvirtintas itin glaudus rysys tarp skirtingos trukmes praeities periodo krituliu kiekio sumos ir vandens lygio kaitos, todel naudojant paprasciausia regresija priklausomybe isreiksta lygtimis, kuriomis galima nustatyti vandens lygio kaita tuo laikotarpiu, kai nera stebejimu, bet yra krituliu kiekio duomenys. Reiksminiai zodiai: vandens lygis, modeliavimas, pelkiniai ezerai, hidrologija.