Rebuilding after COVID-19 will need a sustained national reconstruction plan

The deliberate shutdown of large sections of the economy to stop infection and protect public health has caused an unprecedented economic crisis. This is not a normal cyclical downturn: the kind that starts in one sector, and then spreads via standard economic chain reactions (like reduced incomes, reduced spending, weakened confidence) throughout the economy. This contraction happened much faster - led by synchronised closures in the most vulnerable industries: customer-facing service sectors like retail, hospitality and personal services. It is also much deeper: GDP will likely contract at least 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels, worse even than in the Depression of the 1930s (which took years). And it was deliberate. We wanted production and work to stop, to save lives - so the usual antidotes to a downturn (aimed at encouraging consumers and businesses to get out and spend) are hardly applicable.