Corona-Mechanistik, Kinetik, Modellierung, Simulation und Vorhersage des Verlaufs in Deutschland: Präsentation am Fraunhofer-Institut für Chemische Technologie ICT, März 2020, Pfinztal

Pandemics are not uncommon in themselves and occur again and again at certain intervals. Seen in this way, they are part of evolution.However, most people are not aware that the death rates are close to those of the world wars. From 1918, the Spanish flu claimed 40-50 million deaths, while the Second World War claimed 50-60 million victims.Basically, you cannot escape a pandemic; defeat is only possible through the respective immune system. I.e. organizational measures to reduce contact and improve hygiene can only influence the course of the pandemic.Desirable is a method that allows the prognosis of a pandemic with regard to the number of infections as a function of time. This can then be used as a decision-making aid for internal measures and planning / preventive measures in the healthcare system.For this purpose, a mathematical model of formal kinetics was developed based on the analysis of the biological corona mechanism.This allowed the experimental, known data on the number of infected to be modeled as a function of time. Provided that the basic assumptions are valid, the simulation as a whole allows a prediction of the pandemic course.This is important information for decision-makers when planning measures in all areas.