Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires
Significance As flames spread through forests, buildings, or other complex environments, they can erupt, unexpectedly, into fast-moving conflagrations. This study presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the behavior of spreading flames may indicate when such eruptions are likely to occur....
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Veröffentlicht in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2015-02, Vol.112 (8), p.2378-2383 |
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Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | Significance As flames spread through forests, buildings, or other complex environments, they can erupt, unexpectedly, into fast-moving conflagrations. This study presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the behavior of spreading flames may indicate when such eruptions are likely to occur. Our results rely on the detection of a phenomenon termed “critical slowing down”—the slowed recovery of multistable systems from perturbations as those systems approach tipping points. Using a bistable combustion system in which flames propagate either as small, slowly moving flames, or as large, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire, we provide evidence that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation.
Spreading fires are noisy (and potentially chaotic) systems in which transitions in dynamics are notoriously difficult to predict. As flames move through spatially heterogeneous environments, sudden shifts in temperature, wind, or topography can generate combustion instabilities, or trigger self-stabilizing feedback loops, that dramatically amplify the intensities and rates with which fires propagate. Such transitions are rarely captured by predictive models of fire behavior and, thus, complicate efforts in fire suppression. This paper describes a simple, remarkably instructive physical model for examining the eruption of small flames into intense, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire (i.e., “wind–fire coupling”—a mechanism of feedback particularly relevant to forest fires), and it presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the dynamics of spreading flames indicate when such transitions are likely to occur. In this model system, flames propagate along strips of nitrocellulose with one of two possible modes of propagation: a slow, structured mode, and a fast, unstructured mode sustained by wind–fire coupling. Experimental examination of patterns in dynamics that emerge near bifurcation points suggests that symptoms of critical slowing down (i.e., the slowed recovery of the system from perturbations as it approaches tipping points) warn of impending transitions to the unstructured mode. Findings suggest that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain, temperature) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes o |
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ISSN: | 0027-8424 1091-6490 |
DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.1417043112 |