Climate suitability effect on tree growth and survival for Scots pine provenances in Latvia

Climate in Latvia has been changing in last decades, and it is predicted to continue changing; therefore, it is important for forestry sector to understand how these climatic changes might affect tree growth and survival. In order to assess climate suitability effect on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) provenances in Latvia, height and survival data from a Scots pine provenance trial located in three geographically distant places in Latvia were analysed together with several climatic indices. Provenances in the corresponding trial originated from Latvia, Poland, Germany, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Thirty year average climate data values from 1961 – 1990 for the 64 origins of provenances were acquired from the WorldClim project. Correlation analysis between provenance average values for height and survival and climate index values for the origins of the provenances confirm that there is a relation between these amounts, and the relation differs between the three site locations, indicating that suitability of climate is an important factor affecting the results of provenance trials. Cluster analysis confirmed that provenances from distant origins might have a very similar growth and survival rates; therefore, geographical location of the provenance origins cannot be considered as the only influential factor on these rates and the results from provenance trials have to be analysed together with climate data in order to make conclusions about the suitability of the provenances.