Analysis of alternative personal income tax models - effects of application in Serbia

In economic theory and practice there are many open questions related to design of personal income tax – probably more than in case of other taxes, due to equity-efficiency trade-off, which is highly related to this tax. Therefore, there is no uniform, single best solution, since the performances of each income tax model are dependent on the defined goals of taxation and respective criteria, which arise from the theory and social preferences. There is a consensus in contemporary economic theory on the need to provide horizontal equity in taxation of personal income, as well as modest administration and compliance costs and low tax burden, since there is empirical evidence that this tax distorts economic efficiency and long term economic growth, more than the most of other taxes. It is often argued that income tax should be vertically equitable (progressive), which is legitimate goal, but stemming from personal judgements, which is why there is no common agreement on this goal. Current personal income tax in Serbia is not horizontally (nor vertically) equitable, neither allocative neutral and rather complex, triggering relatively high administration and compliance costs, which is why its reform is necessary. Since this tax may have large influence on behavior of economic agents, the economic effects being dependent on its parameterization and structural features of each particular country (level and structure of income, tax moral, social preferences, etc.), in order to provide evidence based assessment of different income tax models, it is necessary to perform empirical estimate and analysis of main economic effects, based on the data related to that country. The aim of this paper is to provide insight into relevant classical and contemporary theory of income taxation, to make general conclusions on features of alternative income tax schemes based on the analysis of experience of other countries and to make empirical estimate and analysis of economic effects which would arise in Serbia in case of introduction of each of the alternative income tax models, based on relevant micro and macroeconomic data. In that respect, three revenue neutral income tax reform scenarios for Serbia have been drafted – flat, dual and comprehensive. Each of the reform scenarios is based on respective pure theoretical model. All reform scenarios are analyzed within the standard analytical framework for empirical estimation of economic effects of taxation, by combining econometric,