Scenarios for Vocational Education and Training in Europe in the 21st Century

Building on the findings of Cedefop's research project 'The changing nature and role of VET in Europe' (2015-18), this article outlines the development and transformation of European VET over the last two decades. Exploring change from epistemological-pedagogical, institutional and socio-economic perspectives, the research not only illustrates the stability and path dependence of national VET systems (and how this sustains overall VET-diversity in Europe), it also demonstrates how the combination of incremental change and major societal and economic shocks shift the orientation of VET. This mapping and analysis of the past is used to outline possible scenarios for the future of vocational education and training in Europe. Three main scenarios - pluralistic, distinctive and special-purpose VET - illustrate the different directions VET can take in the next two decades and the challenges and opportunities involved in this. The final part of the article discusses the potential use of the scenario-approach and how this is taken forward in Cedefop's follow-up project on the Future of VET (2019-2022).