Does Education Matter? Tests from Extensions of Compulsory Schooling in England and Wales. Research Briefs in Economic Policy. Number 250

There has been clamor and dismay at the expected future economic and social costs for children affected by school closures from COVID-19. A New York Times editorial, for example, stated: "A learning reversal of this magnitude could hobble an entire generation." However, the nearly universal belief in the substantial social and economic benefits of education faces some disquieting counterevidence. School closings will likely have little social cost. One piece of counterevidence is the effects of England's extensions of compulsory schooling in 1919-1922, 1947, and 1972. This shows compellingly that more schooling for students of lower socioeconomic status produced little or no gains in incomes or in broader measures of living standards, such as longevity. In their research, the authors exploit some new large-scale sources to examine the social and economic effects of the 1947 and 1972 schooling extensions and to also measure the effects of the 1919-1922 extension. The analysis of the effects of the 1947 schooling extension, by quarter of birth for the affected cohorts, finds that there is no sign of the 5 percent increase in permanent income that the schooling literature would predict. Indeed, the point estimate is for no gain at all. The picture is the same for the 1972 extension. If the effects of extensions of compulsory schooling in England in the 20th century are a guide for the present, lost schooling will not have any long-term social costs. [This research brief is based on Gregory Clark and Neil Cummins, "Does Education Matter? Tests from Extensions of Compulsory Schooling in England and Wales 1919-22, 1947, and 1972," Center for Economic and Policy Research Discussion Paper no. 15252, September 2020.]