Multivariate Analysis of Student Loan Defaulters at Prairie View A&M University

This study examines the default behavior of 3,325 undergraduate student borrowers who attended Prairie View A&M University (PVAMU) and entered repayment on their TG-guaranteed Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) loans between October 1, 2000 and September 30, 2002 (fiscal years 2001-2002). Using the Department of Education's official cohort default rate formula, 624 borrowers, or 18.8 percent, were in default. The study uses a statistical technique called multiple logistic regression to analyze the effects of individual student and family characteristics on the probability of default, while controlling for the effects of the other variables in the analysis. For students at PVAMU, success in college is the key to preventing student loan defaults. The three measures of success included in the final model: 1) persisting in college beyond the freshman year, 2) performing well while at the university, and 3) obtaining a degree, are all extremely important in decreasing a student's likelihood of default. These results suggest that expanding or intensifying campus-wide efforts to increase retention rates and providing both financial aid and academic counseling to students who perform poorly academically may be the most effective default aversion strategy for PVAMU. These college success variables provide almost all of the predictive power in the final model. However, the study finds that even after controlling for a student's success at PVAMU, a student's high school preparation and family income also have significant relationships to a student's probability of default. The students who are the least prepared academically (as measured by high school class rank percentile) and those who have the fewest financial resources (as measured by expected family contribution) are the most likely to default on their student loans (and the least likely to obtain a college degree). These students may require additional assistance in order to successfully transition to college life and will continue to need counseling and support in order to remain in s and complete their degrees. Appended are: (1) Sample Definition and Variable Descriptions; and (2) Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals. A bibliography is included. (Contains 2 tables and 14 footnotes.)