Feasibility of Estimating Personnel Turnover from Survey Data--A Longitudinal Study. Final Report for Period December 1973-December 1974

The report investigates the validity of career intent and job attitude statements for predicting reenlistments among 54,803 airmen in 101 enlisted specialties. Statements were made while completing Air Force occupational surveys during the period 1966-71. Frequency and percentage distributions characterizing item responses and career decisions of the sample are given. Relationships between career intent/job attitude responses and actual reenlistment decisions were studies using multiple linear regression techniques. Job attitudes were found to be substantially related to career decisions but did not provide unique contributions to predictions of career decisions when used in conjunction with career intent statements. A model-seeking exercise identified a second-degree polynomial model with career intent and time-in-service interaction vectors as the most appropriate prediction model. Separate prediction equations were obtained for a number of selected subsamples. Practical examples of forecasting reenlistment rates are illustrated. The regression model selected for the demonstration used weights derived from the total sample to predict the percentage of actual reenlistments for 30 specialties. Ten principal findings of the study are identified. Appended is a chart of Air Force specialties used in the sample. (Author/MS)