Determining "Most Probable" Causes: A Call for Re-Examining Evaluation Methodology

Throughout the evaluation approach presented in this report, explanation (determination of the most probable cause or causes for a phenomenon) is crucial. It is argued that the Report of the Phi Delta Kappa Study Committee on Evaluation does not adequately treat this concept, nor does it adequately consider some implications of the concept for the methodology of evaluation. The centrality of explanation to evaluation should be emphasized. This perspective highlights existing evaluation methodology (context, input, process, and product) in terms of appropriateness to decisions to be served (explanations to be made) in the evaluation process. This approach identifies gaps in current methodology and provides clues as to how to close those gaps. (Author/DG)