Snapshots at real time intervals on asynchronous data replication system

A moving weighted average of application bandwidth is calculated based on updates to a first data storage by a first data site. A moving weighted average of transmission bandwidth is calculated based on replication of the updates to a second data storage via a second data site. A next coordinated consistency point is identified and the time remaining before the next consistency point is calculated. An amount of the updates that can be replicated before the next consistency point is determined based on the average transmission bandwidth. A prediction of an amount of additional updates that will be generated on the first data site before the next consistency point is made using heuristics based on the average application bandwidth. When update accumulation combined with the prediction exceeds the amount of updates that can be replicated before the next consistency point, pending updates are flushed to the second data storage.