Dynamically identifying target capacity when scaling cloud resources

Embodiments are directed to preventing flapping when auto-scaling cloud resources. In one scenario, a computer system accesses information specifying a target operational metric that is to be maintained on a plurality of cloud resources. The computer system determines a current measured value for the target operational metric for at least some of the cloud resources. The computer system further calculates a scaling factor based on the target operational metric and the current measured value, where the scaling factor represents an amount of variance between the target operational metric and the current measured value. The computer system also calculates a delta value representing a modified quantity of cloud resources modified by the calculated scaling factor and determines whether a scaling action is to occur based on the calculated delta value.