Communication monitor, prediction method, and recording medium

An importance degree prediction apparatus includes a path change determination unit that generates alarm path change information including path change information when a path is changed and an alarm developing when the path is changed in a network. The apparatus includes a reception unit that searches alarm path change information of a new alarm when the alarm is received from a development prediction apparatus, and a prediction unit that predicts a traffic amount in a post-change path based on a traffic amount in a pre-change path in the searched alarm path change information. The apparatus includes a calculation unit that calculates a criticality degree in the network based on a ratio of the predicted traffic amount in the post-change path that exceeds a predetermined allowable amount, and a determination unit that determines an alarm importance degree of the received alarm corresponding to an influence degree based on the criticality degree.