Navigation system for estimating routes for users

The disclosure includes a system and method for generating a probability model used to estimate most likely routes for users. The system includes one or more processors configured to retrieve route data describing historical routes traveled by a group of users and map date describing a map, match the historical routes to the map, identify one or more intersections associated with the historical routes on the map, determine a maneuver ratio for one of the intersections based on the route data, and generate a probability model including one or more maneuver ratios for the one or more intersections. A maneuver ratio describes a ratio of a maneuver that the group of users has taken at the one of the intersections.