Computer-implemented system and method for improving glucose management through modeling of circadian profiles

A computer-implemented system and method for improving glucose management through modeling of circadian profiles is provided. Meal period data is assembled, which includes, for each stated period, at least two measurements of pre-meal and post-meal self-measured blood glucose. Diabetes medication dosed over the periods is identified. The assembled meal period data and the medication are organized into a circadian profile for a diabetic patient. A model including expected blood glucose values and their predicted errors at each period is created from the blood glucose measurements and is visualized in a log-normal distribution. Target ranges for blood glucose at each period are determined and superimposed over the expected blood glucose values. Pharmacodynamics of the medication are obtained. An incremental change in dosing of the medication is propagated over a model day and the expected blood glucose values and their predicted errors are adjusted in response to the incremental dosing change.