Consumer leverage modeling

Embodiments of the present invention relate to systems, methods and computer program products that model consumer leverage and provide a leading indicator that predicts increases or decreases in consumer net non-collectibles. To do so, for example, the present invention determines the growth of consumers' spending and borrowing, and tracks a relationship between the value of a ratio that compares consumers' spending and borrowing and the value of the equilibrium of the ratio that compares consumers' spending and borrowing. This relationship is then applied to predict changes in consumers' ability to repay borrowed funds and consumer net non-collectibles.