Systems and methods for selecting tracking areas and reducing tracking area updates

Some embodiments provide methods for selecting tracking areas in a network, comprising: receiving messages from a plurality of base transceiver stations, the messages identifying a previous tracking area identity and a current tracking area identity; storing probabilities based on a count of transitions between the received previous tracking area identities and current tracking area identities; receiving a message from a user equipment device indicating the user equipment device is located in a first tracking area identified by a first tracking area identity; and selecting at least a second tracking area identity based on the stored probabilities and the first tracking area identity; and sending a tracking area identity list to the user equipment device based on the selected second tracking area.