METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE WEAR OF A MECHANICAL PART, AND METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE OPERATIONAL RISK ASSOCIATED WITH AN AIRCRAFT OR WITH A FLEET OF AIRCRAFT

A method for predicting the wear of a mechanical part and uncertainty of this prediction in a profile of use, the profile of use taking into account environmental conditions associated with environmental data and the time of use of the mechanical part under each of these environmental conditions, the method including determining operational data associated with a plurality of mechanical parts of the same type as the mechanical part; on the basis of the operational data determined, determining a plurality of predictive models of the wear of the part, the mechanical part being able to be divided into a plurality of elements, each element being modelled using at least one model of the plurality of models; and, for each model, determining a weighting coefficient, determining a wear prediction of the mechanical part, and determining a statistical quantity representative of dispersion of the predictions of the plurality of models.