Method for predicting risk of unfavorable outcomes, e.g., in COVID-19 hospitalization, from clinical characteristics and basic laboratory findings

A method for predicting an unfavorable outcome for a patient admitted to a hospital, e.g., with a COVID-19 infection is described. Attributes from an electronic health record for the patient are obtained including at least findings obtained at admission, basic patient characteristics, and laboratory data. The attributes are supplied to a classifier implemented in a programmed computer which is trained to predict a risk of the unfavorable outcome. The classifier is arranged as a hierarchical combination of (a) an initial binary classifier stratifying the patient into either a high risk group or a low risk group, and (b) child classifiers further classifying the patient in a lowest risk group or a highest risk group depending how the initial binary classifier stratified the patient as either a member of the high risk or low risk group. The initial binary classifier is configured as a combination of a trained classification decision tree and a logistical combination of atomic classifiers with drop-out regularization.