ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS OF SEASONAL SERVICE LEVEL AGREEMENT (SLA) VIOLATIONS IN SD-WAN TUNNELS

In one embodiment, a supervisory service for a software-defined wide area network (SD-WAN) detects seasonal service level agreement (SLA) violations by one or more tunnels in the SD-WAN using a machine learning-based regression model. The service identifies a root cause of the seasonal SLA violations by determining whether the root cause of the seasonal SLA violations is associated with an internal network connected to the one or more tunnels. The service further identifies the root cause by determining whether the root cause of the seasonal SLA violations is associated with a particular service provider network over which the one or more tunnels traverse by associating the seasonal SLA violations with SLA violations by tunnels in other SD-WANs that also traverse the particular service provider network. The service initiates a corrective measure based on the determined root cause of the seasonal SLA violations by the one or more tunnels.