MODELING THE VALUE OF A CONNECTION BASED ON DOWNSTREAM INTERACTIONS

In an embodiment, the disclosed technologies include computing a score for a node pair including first and second nodes of a digital connection graph; where nodes of the digital connection graph represent members of an online system; where the online system uses the digital connection graph to determine a runtime decision related to a member represented by the first node; where the score indicates a predicted likelihood of interaction, during a time interval, after a digital connection between the first and second nodes of the node pair; where the predicted likelihood of interaction is determined by comparing a set of statistics computed for the node pair to a digital model; where the digital model has been created using data extracted from post-connection interactions in the online system between members whose nodes are connected in the digital connection graph; causing the score to modify the runtime decision.