METHOD OF PREDICTING DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OPERATION RELIABILITY

METHOD OF PREDICTING DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OPERATION RELIABILITY

A method of predicting the operation reliability of a distribution network, the method being based on an ARIMA model. By establishing an ARIMA model predict a user monthly power outage count; convert a non-smooth element outage count time series to a smooth time series; perform regression on only la...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Sheng, Wanxing, Ye, Xueshun, Hu, Lijuan, Tang, Jiangang, Diao, Yinglong, Meng, Xiaoli, Jia, Dongli, Liu, Keyan, He, Kaiyuan, Dong, Weijie
Format: Patent
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
CALCULATING
COMPUTING
COUNTING
DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES
ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
PHYSICS
SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Zusammenfassung:A method of predicting the operation reliability of a distribution network, the method being based on an ARIMA model. By establishing an ARIMA model predict a user monthly power outage count; convert a non-smooth element outage count time series to a smooth time series; perform regression on only lagged values of a dependent variable, and on current values and lagged values of a stochastic error term, so as to establish a user monthly power outage count model; according to a prediction result sample an outage point, and at the same time, taking into account a real time load operating state, establish a failure mode effects table based on TLOC criteria and PLOC criteria; and calculate a system recovery time for each instance of device outage, and finally obtain a whole-year reliability index.