SYSTEMS AND METHODS OF PREDICTING CONSUMPTION OF ORIGINAL MEDIA ITEMS ACCESIBLE VIA AN INTERNET-BASED MEDIA SYSTEM

A method for determining a subset of users to be shown pre-availability information associated with a new media item is provided. The method includes associating descriptors of a first media item, having a near-zero play-count, in a catalog of an Internet-based media system, identifying a second item having a non-zero play-count, the second item associated with a descriptor of the first item. The method includes collecting pre-availability data describing user interactions with pre-availability elements associated with the first item, the elements being accessible during an intermediate period of time prior to the first item becoming accessible, determining, based on the second item and the collected pre-availability data, a likelihood that a first user will consume the first item, and transmitting a message promoting the first item to a user device of the first user based on that likelihood. Additional systems and methods are disclosed.