SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR FORECASTING USING MONTE CARLO METHODS

SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR FORECASTING USING MONTE CARLO METHODS

A system and method for calculating demand forecasts is presented. Sales data for a set of SKUs is received. The sales data is filtered to contain only data for low-selling SKUs. A set of clusters of SKUs is created. A generalized dynamic linear model for use with each cluster in the set of clusters...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Ray Shubhankar, Feng Huijun
Format: Patent
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
CALCULATING
COMPUTING
COUNTING
DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES
PHYSICS
SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:A system and method for calculating demand forecasts is presented. Sales data for a set of SKUs is received. The sales data is filtered to contain only data for low-selling SKUs. A set of clusters of SKUs is created. A generalized dynamic linear model for use with each cluster in the set of clusters is generated. A set of random data points is generated. The dynamic linear model is fitted at each data point in the set of random data points using a Monte Carlo method. This fitting can be performed using an unscented Kalman filter method. Calculating a forecast for sales based on the fitting at each data point. Using the forecast for sales, inventory is ordered. Other embodiments are also disclosed herein.