METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING THE PROGRESS AND COMPLETION OF A PROJECT BASED ON A BAYESIAN NETWORK

METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING THE PROGRESS AND COMPLETION OF A PROJECT BASED ON A BAYESIAN NETWORK

A method for projecting the progress of a project, the project including work items, the method including: obtaining starting state transition probabilities for the work items in a first time interval; obtaining starting populations of the work items, wherein the starting populations of the work ite...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: SUTTON, JR. STANLEY M, TARR PERI L, DUESTERWALD EVELYN, CANTOR MURRAY R, KLINGER TAMIR
Format: Patent
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
CALCULATING
COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
COMPUTING
COUNTING
DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES
PHYSICS
SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Zusammenfassung:A method for projecting the progress of a project, the project including work items, the method including: obtaining starting state transition probabilities for the work items in a first time interval; obtaining starting populations of the work items, wherein the starting populations of the work items include states of the work items at the beginning of the first time interval; determining expected distributions for the work item states at the end of the first time interval by using the starting state transition probabilities and the starting populations; identifying actual states for the work items at the end of the first time interval; determining actual state transition rates of the work items for the first time interval by using the starting populations and the actual states; and determining expected future state transition probabilities for the work items by using the starting state transition probabilities and the actual state transition rates.