System and method for enhanced collaborative forecasting

Systems and methods for amplifying the collective intelligence of networked human groups engaged in collaborative forecasting of future events having two possible outcomes. During a real-time session a computing device for each user displays a forecasting prompt and a dynamic user interface which in...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser:	Rosenberg, Louis B, Willcox, Gregg
Format:	Patent
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	CALCULATING CHECKING-DEVICES COIN-FREED OR LIKE APPARATUS COMPUTING COUNTING DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS EARTH DRILLING EARTH DRILLING, e.g. DEEP DRILLING ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING ELECTRICITY FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS GEOPHYSICS GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS MEASURING MINING OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR ASLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS PHYSICS SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR TESTING TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHICCOMMUNICATION
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	Systems and methods for amplifying the collective intelligence of networked human groups engaged in collaborative forecasting of future events having two possible outcomes. During a real-time session a computing device for each user displays a forecasting prompt and a dynamic user interface which includes a user-manipulatable marker moved by the user between a first limit and a second limit, where the position of the marker defines a forecasted probability of each possible outcome. The display also includes a first reward value and a second reward value, both of which are interactively responsive to the marker position. During a first time period, users manipulate the markers. After the first time period, a perturbation stimulus is displayed. During a second time period, users again manipulate the markers. After the second time period, a final group forecast is calculated based on the data collected during the first and second time periods.