Managing emissions demand response event intensity

Techniques for performing an emissions demand response event are described. In an example, a cloud-based HVAC control server system obtains an emissions rate forecast for a predefined future time period. Using the emissions rate forecast, a future emissions rate event during the predefined future time period is identified. The future emissions rate event comprises an indication of predicted magnitude and a time period when a predicted emissions rate will be at an increased or decreased level. A confidence value indicating a certainty of the future emissions rate event occurring as predicted is determined. Based on the identified future emissions rate event and the confidence value, an emissions demand response event having a start time and an end time during the future emissions rate event is generated. The cloud-based HVAC control server system then causes a thermostat to control an HVAC system in accordance with the generated emissions demand response event.