Managing pre-programming of a memory device for a reflow process

A system includes a memory device and a processing device, operatively coupled with the memory device. The processing device is configured to perform operations that include determining a verify reference voltage associated with a logic state of a memory cell of the memory device, the verify reference voltage defining a target voltage level of a threshold voltage associated with the logic state; determining an amount of voltage compensation based on a thermal profile associated with a heat to be applied to the memory device, the thermal profile comprising a temperature associated with the heat and a period of time the heat is to be applied to the memory device; and updating the verify reference voltage using the amount of voltage compensation for an expected shift in the threshold voltage of the memory cell after the heat is applied to the memory device.